I think there is tremendous upside in agriculture. In fact, I believe the energy crisis we are entering is going to spill over into food production and cause much higher crop prices and in some countries food shortages.
One way to play this is via fertilizer companies. A recent article from a guy I follow highlights an interesting opportunity in a nitrogen fertilizer company.
I truly believe that UAN remains one of the most compelling bets you can make in the commodities space, and the risk/reward has only improved throughout the year – so much so that I had to “average up” at various points in time, most recently as high as $84/unit. My proposition is that UAN offers a clear path to a double (or more!) in the next ~9 months or so, while providing full downside protection, which is a rare combination in the commodities space.