The Magazine Cover Indicator

 

The magazine cover indicator posits that when the mainstream media touts a topic, like a magazine cover, it can be a critical turning point. The consensus is rarely correct at important turning points

The above cover is from the most current issue of Businessweek. It is basically declaring that inflation is dead. This appears to be a consensus view.

I take the opposite view. Central Banks have had rates at zero for a decade. They have painted themselves into a corner and cannot raise rates or the economy, and more importantly the stock market, will tank.

We have talk of MMT or modern monetary theory from no-nothing bartenders turned congresscritters. A wacko idea that governments can just print money just because.

I have no doubt that economic illiterates and neo-socialists and Marxists are on the rise in our country. They will want to spend money. There is no money to spend so they will print some. The west and Japan are old and are aging. Pension and healthcare promises have been made and they cannot be paid, old people vote. Governments will print.

Federal, State, local, and private pensions are underfunded and cannot pay their promised benefits. Governments will print.

I think you get the idea. I like commodity and resource-based companies as they are historically cheap versus equities. I think Businessweek is wrong and I am taking the other side of that bet.

 

Commdoties versus stocks valuation
Commodites are cheap versus stocks

 

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