In a recently published science paper, Dr. Wallace Manheimer said it would be the end of modern civilisation. Writing about wind and solar power he argued it would be especially tragic “when not only will this new infrastructure fail, but will cost trillions, trash large portions of the environment, and be entirely unnecessary”. The stakes, he added, “are enormous”.
Dr. Manheimer holds a physics PhD from MIT and has had a 50-year career in nuclear research, including work at the Plasma Physics Division at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. He has published over 150 science papers. In his view, there is “certainly no scientific basis” for expecting a climate crisis from too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in the next century or so. He argues that there is no reason why civilization cannot advance using both fossil fuel power and nuclear power, gradually shifting to more nuclear power.
Manheimer points out that before fossil fuel became widely used, energy was provided by people and animals. Because so little energy was produced, “civilisation was a thin veneer atop a vast mountain of human squalor and misery, a veneer maintained by such institutions as slavery, colonialism and tyranny”.
I have talked quite a bit that one of the main investment themes is playing the arbitrage between energy reality and the energy dreams of the net zero crowd.
As I have said and as Dr. Manheimer shows, without sufficient input of energy into the economy/society you will see complex systems begin to break down and civilization put at risk.
I think we have reached peak ESG and more and more people are waking up to the necessity of a rational energy policy. Nevertheless, it will take time and several election cycles to reverse the trend. In the interim expect new all-time highs in most energy prices over this decade as the effects of not investing in new supply slam into a world thirsty for energy.