I am a big fan of Francis Melton’s blog “The Manhattan Contrarian”
It is not an investment blog but he does write quite a bit on ESG and DEI issues. I share many of his views and criticisms.
His recent article “Are Electric Vehicles Abou To Sweep The Country” is worth a look.
Some snippets are below:
So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it. This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy. EVs may be a successful niche product for a small number of wealthy consumers, but the idea that they will fully replace gasoline powered cars in short order is the dream of central planners, who think they can implement their dream by coercion. Central planning never works, and won’t work this time either. The reason is that the would-be central planners don’t know enough, and can’t ever know enough, to put together all the elements to make a fully functioning economic sector.
He references another writer on three of the main reasons electric vehicles will not replace ICE’s anytime soon.
(1) despite vast government subsidies and rebates, EVs are still far more expensive than gasoline-powered cars, (2) even with greatly increased sales, the existing gasoline-powered cars will not go away and will still be on the road and the dominant vehicles in 2035 and even 2050, and (3) the increased amounts of necessary minerals for the batteries, from lithium to nickel to cobalt, are never going to materialize.
Nevertheless, it is obvious governments are arrogant and will attempt to force this policy anyway. This interference with the free market will cause unforeseen consequences which will likely create opportunities for profit by speculators.
I remain vigilant in my pursuit of these “heads we win, tails we win more opportunities” that are being caused by the government’s arrogant interference with the invisible hand.